Pakistan Nuclear Arsenal & Military Power Profile

Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT with approximately 170 warheads, making it one of the fastest-growing nuclear arsenals in the world. Pakistan's nuclear weapons program is primarily oriented toward deterring India and compensating for India's conventional military superiority. Pakistan has not adopted a no-first-use policy and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict.

Nuclear Arsenal

| Category | Count | |---|---| | Total warheads | ~170 | | Deployed strategic | 0 (de-mated) | | Stockpile | ~170 | | Retired | 0 |

Pakistan's arsenal has grown steadily and is projected to continue expanding. Like India, Pakistan keeps its warheads de-mated from delivery vehicles during peacetime.

Delivery Systems

Land-based ballistic missiles: Pakistan operates several missile families:

• Shaheen-III: Range ~2,750 km, solid-fueled, capable of reaching all of India
• Shaheen-II: Range ~1,500 km, solid-fueled MRBM
• Ghauri: Range ~1,300 km, liquid-fueled (based on North Korean Nodong design)
• Nasr (Hatf-IX): Short-range (60 km) tactical nuclear missile designed for battlefield use

Cruise missiles: Pakistan has developed the Babur ground-launched cruise missile (700 km range) and Ra'ad air-launched cruise missile (350 km range), both nuclear-capable.

Air-delivered: Pakistan Air Force F-16s and Mirage III/V fighters are believed to be nuclear-capable.

Pakistan does not have submarine-launched ballistic missiles or a sea-based nuclear deterrent, though the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile is under development.

Military Overview

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | GFP Rank | #14 of 145 | | GFP Score | 0.3637 | | Active military | 654,000 | | Reserve forces | 550,000 | | Military budget | $10 billion |

Pakistan's military is the sixth-largest in the world by active personnel. Despite a relatively small defense budget, Pakistan maintains a large ground force and has extensive combat experience from counterinsurgency operations.

Role in Current Nuclear Risk

Pakistan's nuclear posture is a critical factor in global nuclear risk:

• No-first-use rejection: Pakistan explicitly rejects a no-first-use policy, stating it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first if its territorial integrity is threatened — including in response to a conventional Indian attack.
• Tactical nuclear weapons: The Nasr short-range missile was developed specifically for battlefield nuclear use, lowering the threshold for nuclear employment in a South Asian conflict.
• India rivalry: The India-Pakistan nuclear competition is one of the most dangerous dyads in the world. Both nations conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998 and have come close to conflict multiple times since.
• A.Q. Khan network: Pakistan's historical proliferation through the A.Q. Khan network (which supplied nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran, and Libya) remains a concern for global nonproliferation.
• Iran connections: Pakistan's proximity to Iran and historical nuclear technology transfers make it relevant to the current Iran nuclear crisis.

Position on the Iran Crisis

Pakistan occupies a uniquely sensitive position in the 2026 crisis — sharing a 959 km border with Iran, maintaining close ties with both Washington and Beijing, and bearing the historical burden of the A.Q. Khan proliferation network that helped Iran develop centrifuge technology.

Border security: The Pakistan-Iran border runs through Balochistan, a restive region with cross-border militant activity that both countries have historically managed through security cooperation. The crisis has raised concerns about refugee flows if Iran's internal situation deteriorates, and about the potential for cross-border spillover from Iranian military operations or IRGC militia activity.

Sectarian dimension: Pakistan is a Sunni-majority country with approximately 20% Shia population. The Iran crisis risks inflaming domestic sectarian tensions, particularly in areas with large Shia communities such as Gilgit-Baltistan and parts of Punjab. Pakistani leaders are acutely aware that taking sides in a conflict framed as Sunni Gulf states versus Shia Iran could destabilize domestic politics.

Nuclear precedent validation: The destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities provides an uncomfortable lesson that Pakistan's own 1998 decision to test nuclear weapons — despite intense international pressure — was strategically correct. Iran, which pursued enrichment capability without weaponization, has had its facilities destroyed. Pakistan, which built and tested actual weapons, has deterrent protection against such strikes. This "only completed weapons deter" lesson may embolden proliferators worldwide and is studied closely in Islamabad, where it reinforces the institutional consensus that Pakistan's nuclear capability is its ultimate security guarantee.

A.Q. Khan legacy: Pakistan's historical proliferation through the A.Q. Khan network — which supplied centrifuge technology to Iran, North Korea, and Libya — remains a sensitive diplomatic issue. The current crisis has renewed international attention to how Iran acquired enrichment capability in the first place, creating uncomfortable questions for Islamabad about accountability.

Economic impact: Pakistan imports approximately 85% of its oil, and the Hormuz blockade has driven fuel costs sharply higher in a country already facing severe fiscal pressure, a weakening rupee, and IMF bailout conditions. Pakistan called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities" through its foreign ministry but has avoided criticizing either the US or Iran directly.